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The Dunning-Kruger Effect and The Implications in Executive Protection 

The Dunning-Kruger Effect

The Dunning-Kruger Effect

Executive Protection (EP) often conjures a wide range of mental images, from traditional bodyguards to contracted tactical Protective Security Details (PSD) and everything in between.  This image is largely shaped by Hollywood portrayals and amplified by self-proclaimed industry “influencers” on social media platforms such as Instagram and YouTube.

A simple online search for “Executive Protection” yields a flood of content representing every niche of the EP career field, along with many questionable portrayals and misinformation. To seasoned professionals, much of this material is easily dismissed as ridiculous noise.  Concern, however, arises when individuals promote or publish content without realizing that their messaging and tactics diverge sharply from established industry best practices and standards and border on the absurd. These posts often influence prospective protectors and clients by misrepresenting professional skillsets and services.  So what are the consequences for protection professionals when “you don’t know what you don’t know?” 

While it’s understood that not everyone in Executive Protection (EP) has the same level of experience or training, there are fundamental skills and core competencies that every practitioner should possess. Unfortunately, this gap in baseline knowledge surfaces far too often in a profession where lives depend on performance. Adding to the issue is a fragmented certification and training landscape across multiple states, which, over the past decade, has helped splinter the EP field even more.  As a result, some have drifted away from foundational EP principles and into the nonsensical theatrical periphery of the profession. 

This divergence has created other problems and a growing trend: Executive Protection providers branching out into areas beyond their scope in pursuit of new revenue streams. Unfortunately, in some cases, this expansion follows a “fake it till you make it” approach to business development. Is service diversification inherently bad?  Not at all, but it becomes problematic when quantity takes precedence over quality, and even worse when the firms offering these services lack the necessary training, licensing, certification, or expertise to succeed.   

When you knowingly exaggerate your qualifications, you’re expressing unprofessional behavior.  When you do it unknowingly, you’re exhibiting the Dunning-Kruger Effect, a cognitive bias in which individuals with limited knowledge or experience in a professional area significantly overestimate their abilities. In Executive Protection, where your decisions can determine the safety of others, this blind overconfidence, particularly among the inexperienced, is not just dangerous, it’s potentially lethal. Recognizing and addressing this bias is essential to ensuring the safety of our protectees and maintaining the credibility of our profession. 

Understanding the Dunning-Kruger Effect 

First studied by psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger in 1999, the psychological effect describes how people who lack skills in a particular area are often unaware of their lack of expertise and rate their abilities far higher than warranted. Ironically, it’s this very lack of knowledge that prevents them from realizing how much they don’t know.  This effect is almost the opposite of “Impostor Syndrome,” where someone can feel inadequate, but possesses the necessary skills; conversely, under Dunning-Kruger, you are overconfident in your knowledge or abilities and don’t possess the needed skills.   

In professions requiring high levels of precision, planning, and situational awareness, like EP, this bias can have disastrous results. It’s reflected when protectors with minimal training, experience, or protective skills assume they’re ready to handle every EP assignment.    

Executive Protection: It’s performance, not hype 

Median spending on executive protection for top corporate officers has risen 16% this year, according to new data from Equilar, which reviewed financial filings for the 500 largest U.S. public companies by revenue (Reuters). With this sudden attention and disbursement on personal protection, marketing for protective services has reached an all-time high.  The EP career field is not about appearances or theatrical displays for the benefit of clients or onlookers, but for some, dramatized marketing targeting the inexperienced pays the bills.  Despite the recent public and corporate interest in personal protective services, what is increasingly promoted on social media is often fantasy for the benefit of the producers’ bank accounts.   

At its core, EP involves proactive threat mitigation, precision planning, and logistical execution under pressure. It’s about being the calmest, most capable, and best-prepared person in the room when the unexpected occurs. This profession demands more than a sharp suit and stoic demeanor. It requires: 

In short, EP isn’t about being seen; it’s about being effective,…without anyone noticing.     

How the Dunning-Kruger Effect is reflected in EP 

Despite the obvious complexity and responsibility of the EP role, the career field, especially in the age of Instagram Reels and YouTube Shorts, is saturated with overconfident beginners and sometimes “not-so-beginner EP Cool Guys” who are quick to provide “content” on their latest assignment or pseudo-training course. It’s easy to spot, but examples include:  

The Cost of Overconfidence 

As noted earlier, this is not a profession where you can “fake it until you make it.” That certificate from a two-day online course in EP fundamentals does not effectively prepare you or equate to operational readiness. True competence in EP comes from hundreds of hours of structured training, scenario-based learning, and real-world experience.  

Protective operations demand more than theoretical knowledge; it requires sound judgment, refined skills, and the ability to perform under pressure when threats emerge. Without that foundation, you’re not just taking unnecessary risks, you’re creating dangerous vulnerabilities.  

A lack of proper training and real-world experience doesn’t just jeopardize your own safety; it compromises the safety of your protectee, undermines the effectiveness of your team, and exposes everyone to unnecessary threats. In EP, failure isn’t an individual consequence; it ripples outward, impacting the very people you’ve been entrusted to safeguard. 

The immediate results of the Dunning-Kruger Effect in daily EP operations can be seen when: 

How to Address the Dunning-Kruger Effect in EP 

Fortunately, the Dunning-Kruger Effect can be overcome, not with more confidence, but with more competence. It starts with experienced supervision and honest exchanges between professionals regarding performance and protective operational coverage in your workplace and the EP community.  While personal critique is not usually something most in this field enjoy or entertain (you know who you are), without honest dialogue and open conversations, poor protection continues.   Here’s how the EP community can address these issues and elevate the career field at the same time: 

Conclusion 

Executive Protection is not a “game,” lifestyle, or aesthetic. This demanding profession requires humility, skill, and relentless attention to detail. The Dunning-Kruger Effect is particularly concerning in this environment because the stakes are so high and the consequences so real.  If you’re new to the career field, the best thing you can do is admit what you don’t know, seek quality training, and invest in pursuing real-world experience. If you’re a seasoned professional, your responsibility is to continue learning, call out and correct dangerous practices, and focus on safeguarding the lives entrusted to your protection.  In the end, the most professional thing we can say in this field might be: “I don’t know,…but I’ll find out.”   

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