Christopher Brown & Joshua Brown
There are many misconceptions about executive protection from those outside the industry. If someone inquires about an agent’s chosen career and the agent specifies it in these terms, it is likely to be met with a blank stare. If an agent’s response is: “bodyguard”, an expected response with additional inquiry is: “bouncer?” Following the assassination of United Healthcare CEO Brian Thompson, close protection is becoming more pronounced and sought-after, according to open-source research.
Due to its increased visibility, a baseline understanding of what the profession entails is becoming more common. It is therefore possible to explain the various nuances associated with the profession, which keep the public safe and informed about this traditionally misunderstood line of work.
Shaken, Not Stirred
One of the primary assumptions the general population may make about executive protection professionals is the way they present themselves: suit & tie, sunglasses, cleanly shaven, & tightly cropped haircut. Some of these assumptions hold some of the time. Others may misperceive executive protection agents as James Bond types who drive Aston Martins and go after supervillains for Queen & Country.
Of course, executive protection work is about protecting; it is about getting the client off the “X” and out of harm’s way—not launching high-profile special operations against a global super villain. That said, there is something that every executive protection agent should have in common with 007 – namely, a deep and intimate understanding of the game of poker.
We are referring to the no-limit version of the card game, which can make or break a player financially. We will be specifying this game throughout this piece, although Bond, of course, is known for his baccarat skills too. This article assumes the reader has a basic understanding of poker, specifically Texas Hold ’em, and a general sense of what a bodyguard is.
Anyone who is a Bond fan has seen Casino Royale – the epic battle between crime lord Le Chiffre and the British Secret Agent – a high-stakes buy-in of 10 million dollars. You get the picture. In the same way Bond exploits his opponent in the film, an executive protection agent should be able to anticipate and manipulate the moves of a potential assassin before their attempt on the client’s life.
In the film, there are various examples of how this could be employed, but more generally, we are focusing on practical things from the poker table that an agent should be able to apply in their work. Yes, this means playing poker in any form for money, even penny stakes (if it’s legal), will make an agent more effective in their protection work.
Bankroll Management
An effective poker player will employ bankroll management. This means covering their profit and loss—and taking ownership of their mistakes. Typically, an effective player will keep track of their buy-ins, profits, and losses with financial software. Bankroll management teaches transparency and keeps a player honest.
In executive protection, an agent must be accountable for their actions and any mistakes, and must be professional but transparent with their direct line supervisor and client (as appropriate). An effective player will use their funds to train and play. An effective agent, at times, should allocate part of their salary to training opportunities that become available. Practicing effective bankroll management may ultimately benefit an agent running their executive protection detail – especially if it involves balancing a budget.
Determining which days a poker player may be less profitable may also enable an agent to take that into account and practice extra caution during those specific operational times while on the job.
There is a “table limit” for each game that is based on the blinds. Typically, the limit is 150x the Big Blind. For example, in a $1/$2 game, the table limit is $300. Whatever the limit is, a player should come in with the full amount of the table limit as opposed to coming in below the table limit, as now they have less money or fewer chips, less “ammunition” or less “tools” available.
Going in with anything less than the table limit leaves a player susceptible to being taken advantage of by others who come in at the full table limit. Likewise, in the executive protection world, an agent does not want to go into any mission underprepared or without all the necessary planning and resources to complete the assignment to the best of their ability, ensuring the best chance of success.
Reading the Table
An effective poker player will develop their opponents by reading their “tells.” A poker “tell” is a human behavior that may give off an indication that an opponent may or may not have the best hand of cards. An effective executive protection agent will utilize surveillance detection & associated methods to identify potential assassins in the same way a poker player will look at the faces of their opponents as the cards are dealt – instead of first looking at their hole cards.
By identifying tells at the poker table, an agent will become more adept at noticing inconsistencies in human behavior and be more effective at identifying potential threats.
Advancing the Game
An “advance” in executive protection is utilizing planning methodology to map out an operation. This could involve moving the principal from one location to another. Identifying potential choke points and other hazards is part of this process. Utilizing open-source information to detect threats is another aspect. In poker, “advancing” the game is essential.
Conducting an advance in poker involves identifying games that contain the worst players, known in poker as “fish.” Identifying where these games exist is a key part of being a successful player. Successfully “advancing” a poker atmosphere will make an agent more effective in planning their operations by making them more aware.
Managing Risk
In poker, adept players are aware of “pot-odds”. Pot odds refer to the ratio between the size of the pot and the amount a player needs to call to stay in the hand. Pot odds help players decide whether to call or fold by comparing the potential reward (the pot) against the cost of calling.
If the pot odds are favorable (meaning the potential reward is greater than the risk), it is often a good idea to call; conversely, if the pot odds are not favorable, a player should fold. This potentially means a player could have two separate yet identical hands, but based on the “pot-odds” of that specific situation, they choose two completely different actions. An effective agent must do the same with their assignment – an agent can have two very similar situations in executive protection, but could end up taking completely different actions based on the risk/reward proposition in each scenario.
In poker, there is inherent risk built into the game. While it is a game of skill, some luck is still required. Successful poker players will study game theory optimization, also known as GTO, to improve their decision-making. GTO is about refining game play and folding out hands that hold poor value statistically.
By understanding which hands are troublesome and having the discipline to release those hands, a player will be more successful. An agent will utilize similar strategies in executive protection. Executive protection career growth involves having the discipline to accept work that aligns with one’s strengths. For example, a former Division 1 college athlete turned agent is likely a better fit for protecting a retired professional athlete. In contrast, a former politician and prior Secret Service Agent may be a more congruent fit. It’s not always true, but it is accurate many times.
In the same way, game theory will only get a player so far; a player must also use exploitative play based on how loose a table is, or by adjusting their play to take on a “fish.” Deviating from a standard course of action in poker is comparable to an operational planning detail in executive protection. For example, if a pre-planned route is blocked due to construction that was not anticipated during an advance, an agent must immediately adapt and find an alternative route.
Making split-second decisions at the poker table will make an agent more effective at making forced decisions that carry inherent risk – risk that an agent must accept to keep the client safe from harm.
Ranging
A successful poker player will be able to play a wide “range” of hands successfully using exploitative play while adhering to GTO principles. A successful strategy means not overcommitting to a hand, but playing a chosen hand tightly and aggressively.
A successful executive protection agent will possess a diverse range of skills, both hard and soft, with the ability to apply these skills effectively in any given scenario. Utilizing these same ranging techniques in poker will make an agent more effective at identifying their strengths and weaknesses and enable them to employ tactics accordingly.
For example, in a volatile situation where a principal’s safety is threatened, an agent must take immediate action using hard skills, such as counter-ambush evasive driving. In a dynamic situation involving paparazzi that is disruptive, an agent may be able to utilize soft skills, such as de-escalation. In the same way, a strong poker hand that misses the flop is played aggressively to force a fold if the “EV”, or expected value, makes sense to adjust and rake in the pot. Or a player may need to fold a hand and avoid a trap on the turn. Exercising this cognitive discipline will sharpen an agent’s decision-making on the job.
Another example of discipline in poker comes with “building the pot” and placing calculated bets throughout each phase of the hand (aka preflop, after the flop, turn, and river) as opposed to going all in preflop or not value betting throughout the hand and then lazily pushing all in too late.
This is the same in executive protection – an agent must give adequate attention, planning, and execution for each phase of the assignment. An agent may have an otherwise perfect plan but still lose because of being underprepared for one element of the assignment or not giving adequate attention to a small yet significant detail. The best agents have extreme attention to detail in all realms of the mission.
Variance
A poker player is faced with a variety of opponents and an unlimited number of hands in any given situation. Expected variance is the understanding that many things are outside a poker player’s control and that the best hand at a certain point may no longer be the winning hand. In each street of betting, balances shift, moods shift, and pressure builds. Poker gameplay creates an explosive dynamic that tests a player’s patience and discipline.
The ever-changing environment sharpens a player’s ability to adapt to any situation based on the possible outcomes. On an executive protection detail, an agent will come across constantly shifting threats, traffic patterns, concierge staff, executive assistants, and principals. Every person they interact with and every decision they make can make or break their career. Every decision in poker can make or break a bankroll.
By practicing their poker skills and maintaining a disciplined and emotionless approach to the game, they will inevitably become better agents due to refined wit.
Poker Coach and EP Mentor
An effective poker player will follow other successful players on social media. They will watch their gameplay, read their books, and follow their blogs. An effective poker player will find and seek out a coach, whether formally or informally. A poker coach will bring a player to the next level of play – if it’s the right coach – and keep them honest.
In executive protection, a successful agent will seek out a mentor in the industry who will guide their decisions. They will not make operational decisions for the agent, but rather assist in making career-impacting, strategic-level moves. A poker coach and an executive protection mentor are both examples of what will make a better and more effective agent.
Avoid Going “All-in”
In poker, a player can (and will) lose an individual hand, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they will lose the overall game itself. In poker, the only way a player can lose the overall game is if they go “all in” in a specific hand and then end up losing that hand. So, it goes to reason, in general, it makes sense to avoid “all-in” scenarios as it is impossible to lose the game if a player does not risk it all on any specific hand.
In executive protection, sometimes the best course of action may mean an agent needs to “fold” the hand, change the plans, or take an alternate path to avoid a potential “all-in” situation. The only time it makes sense to go “all-in” in poker is in certain situations in which a player is trying to create a forced move from their opponent by using overwhelming force to coerce them into the action of folding their hand. It is the same in executive protection.
It is best to avoid “all-in” scenarios unless the situation requires that you create a forced move in which you eliminate other potential actions that could lead to a dubious outcome, or if you know by making an “all-in” move that you are guaranteed a successful outcome.
Conclusion
An effective executive protection agent can benefit from playing poker, even at low stakes, as it relates to their decision-making. Conducting a review to analyze what a player or agent did well on an operation or in a session, what they can improve on, ensuring there are no weaknesses, gaps, or blind spots, is essential.
Poker and executive protection require a mix of skills and disciplined decision-making that intersect and interplay. It is not about becoming rich; it is about understanding and being accountable for decisions that relate to inherent risk. The responsibility lies in identifying and mitigating it to the lowest level possible, while maximizing client satisfaction and their career goals.
About the Authors
Christopher Brown is a retired U.S. Army Officer and executive protection agent specializing in ultra-high-net-worth clientele. He is a recreational micro-stakes poker player, investor, writer, and published contributor in national defense and close protection circles.
Joshua Brown is Chief Executive Officer of Cryo Nation, an investor, a recreational macro-stakes poker player, and a U.S. Army veteran.
The views expressed are those of the authors and no other entity. The information provided in this article is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute professional advice.
