Effectiveness of Firearms in Executive Protection

There has been a lot of discussion on the effectiveness of firearms in executive protection. For many protectors, as well as for protectees, guns are synonymous with protection. In addition, they appear to be an indispensable requirement for exercising this profession. That is why we gave ourselves the difficult task of determining, with facts, the effectiveness of firearms in real-life situations.

However, this purpose is almost impossible to specify through absolute scientific rigor since, only in Mexico, it would be practically unfeasible to account for how many people perform this activity, including:

• Private security agents,
• Complementary police,
• Police officers,
• Military who perform these tasks on official commission,
• Military in retirement who work on their own, etc.

We do not have a precise number of protectors in the world. We do not know how many of them have a gun, nor the number of total events in which they could have used it with or without success.

Methodology and Data on Firearms in Executive Protection

We know that only in Mexico, according to the INEGI, in the last three decades, a total of 2.877 executives have been murdered. Still, we ignore how many of them had protectors and how many carried firearms.

If we extrapolate this globally, doing an exact study becomes impossible. That is why we decided to take a representative sample that allowed us to obtain a result, although approximate, significant enough to determine the performance of firearms in executive protection.

For this purpose, we analyze 124 attacks against prominent public figures during the 20th and the 21st centuries in 60 countries.

What were the criteria for considering these 124 cases? For the sample to be significant, we took into account the following aspects:

• Universal nature – the cases are from around the world;
• Historically verifiable and widely disseminated facts;
• The number of cases is sufficiently representative;
• Covers a significant period;
• It is verifiable that the victims had an armed security protection team;
• Victims are people of very high rank in their respective countries or persons with official protection assigned by the authorities. (So, it can be presumed that the agents that provided protection were duly selected and trained. Thus, the reaction failures can not be attributed to a lack of training or aptitude, characteristic of extreme relevance for the present analysis).

Only assassinations and assassination attempts have been considered because kidnappings would be impossible to quantify. Moreover, it would be extremely difficult to have historically verifiable facts about the performance of armed personnel in each case. The same applies to the use of firearms against random assaults and other types of similar problems since they are even less documented.

Relevance of Firearms in Executive Protection

The sample of the 124 universal and verifiable cases is sufficiently broad and representative to show us what the best-armed security groups, in their respective countries, managed to do in the cases of actual attacks that occurred over more than a century and what was the relevance that firearms had to protect people in all these cases.

To consider that in a particular attack the use of firearms was successful, the criterion is that weapons should have been used effectively. That is to say that their use was decisive for the protectee to be unharmed. Otherwise, the survival could be attributed to an accident and not to the effectiveness of weapons.

Of course, the study also considered some documented cases where measures such as intelligence were decisive, so the attack was deactivated far from the protectee in space and in time as it should be in modern executive protection.

We divided the cases into two parts:

• In the first one, the attacks were not successful for various reasons, and
• In the second one, the attacks had a fatal result.

We can note that only in 4.03% of cases, firearms were decisive in saving the protectees.

So, this particular study shows very little relevance and reliability that this tool has in executive protection. Of course, as we could also see, 4.03% can save the life of the protectee, so it should not be abolished.

Myth and Action Movies

Firearms should not be considered the main tools in executive protection, nor should the security system of a VIP be focused on its employment. Of course, this is not intended to be a definitive study. Still, it can give a general idea about the degree of effectiveness of firearms in executive protection.

It is also important to note that, for decades, its preponderance in this industry was based on a myth or in action movies — not on the facts or the hard data.

Surprisingly, in 7.2% of the cases, the attacks were frustrated or later controlled by “empty hands.” These techniques were used against the lonely aggressors who attacked public figures from the crowd. This does not necessarily mean empty-hand combat techniques are more effective than weapons. This simply showed their efficacy for a specific threat that was frequent in the study, but it also means that empty-hand combat skills are essential in executive protection.

It is important to point out the attack against the presidential candidate of Colombia, Luis Carlos Galán, who was killed despite having 18 heavily armed agents. This fact makes it evident that a numerous and heavily armed detail is not necessarily an effective detail.

So the present representative sample gives an approximate value of 4.03% effectiveness of firearms in real-life situations. Of course, some might highlight its importance as a deterrent factor. However, analyzing its other advantages and disadvantages is not the subject of this study. Here we focus solely on analyzing a representative sample of its effectiveness in real crises.

Final Remarks

In conclusion, the firearm in executive protection is a tool of minor importance and reliability. However, it should not be dismissed since, as we saw, it can save our lives in some conditions.

The important thing is to focus our operations on preventive activities that allow us to anticipate and deactivate the attacks before they happen and stop focusing our operations on methods that historically didn’t give enough results.

Intents:

1. Eduard, Prince of Wales – 1900
2. Leopold II, King of Belgium – 1902
3. Alfonso XIII, King of Spain – 1906
4. Theodore Roosevelt, presidential candidate, EU – 1912
5. Vladimir Ilich Lenin, Leader of Soviet Revolution – 1918
6. Georges Clemenceau, Prime Minister of France – 1919
7. Benito Mussolini, Leader of Fascist Italy – April 1926
8. Benito Mussolini, Leader of Fascist Italy – May 1926
9. Herbert Hoover, President USA – 1928
10. Franklin D. Roosevelt, President USA – 1933
11. Keisuke Okada, Prime Minister of Japan – 1936
12. Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, Sha de Iran – 1949
13. Harry Truman, President USA – 1950 (firearms were decisive)
14. Prince Hussein, Prince of Jordan – 1960
15. Konrad Adenauer, German Chancellor – 1952
16. Hendrik Verwoerd, Prime Minister of South Africa – 1960
17. Charles de Gaulle, President of France – 1961
18. Charles de Gaulle, President of France – 1962
19. Georgios Papadopoulos, President of Greece – 1968
20. Leonid Brezhnev, Secretary General of the Soviet Union – 1969
21. George Wallace, presidential candidate EU – 1972
22. Ana, Princess of England – 1974
23. Sukarno, President of Indonesia – 1962
24. Gerald Ford, President USA – 1975
25. Isabel II, Queen of England – 1981
26. Pope John Paul II – 1981
27. Reagan, President of the United States – 1981
28. Chun Doo Hwan, President of South Korea – 1983
29. Margaret Thatcher, first female British Prime Minister – 1984
30. Augusto Pinochet, President of Chile – 1986 (firearms were decisive)
31. Wolfgang Schäuble, German Prime Minister – 1990
32. John Major, Prime Minister of UK – 1991
33. Eduard Shevardnadze, President of Georgia – 1992
34. Eduard Shevardnadze, President of Georgia – 1995
35. Hosni Mubarak, President of Egypt – 1995 (firearms were decisive)
36. Kiro Gligorov, President of Macedonia – 1995
37. José María Aznar, Spanish politician – 1995
38. Prince Charles of Wales – 1995
39. Eduard Shevardnadze, President of Georgia – 1998
40. Jacques Chirac, President of France – 2002
41. Hamid Karzai, President of Afghanistan – 2002 (firearms were decisive)
42. Pervez Musharaf, President of Pakistan – 2003
43. Murat Zyazikov, President of Ingushetia – 2004
44. Shaukat Aziz, Prime Minister of Pakistan – 2004
45. Sheikh Hasina, Prime Minister of Bangladesh – 2004
46. Ibrahim Rugova, President of Kosovo* – 2005
47. Pervez Musharaf, President of Pakistan – 2007
48. George W. Bush, President USA and Mikhail Saakashvili, President of Georgia – 2005
49. Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed, President of Somalia – 2006
50. Gotabhaya Rajapaksa, Secretary of Defense of Sri Lanka – 2006
51. Dick Cheney, Vice President of the United States – 2007
52. Guillaume Soro, Prime Minister of Ivory Coast – 2007
53. Abdul Gayoom, President of Maldives – 2008
54. Jose Ramos Horta, President of East Timor – 2008
55. Queen Beatrix, Queen of Netherlands – 2009
56. Yunus-bek Yevkurov, Leader of Ingushetia – 2009
57. Stephen Timms, British Labor MP – 2010
58. Ali Abdulah Saleh, President of Yemen – 2011
59. Alpha Condé, President of Guinea (firearms were decisive)
60. Abdul Ghafoor Haideri, Leader of the Pakistani Senate – 2017
61. Nicolas Maduro, President of Venezuela – 2018
62. Omar Garcia Harfuch, Chief of the City of Mexico – 2020
63. Ivan Duque, President of Colombia – 2021
64. Assimi Goita, President of Mali – 2021
65. Aleksandar Vučić, President of Serbia – 2022

FATAL RESULTS

66. William McKinley, President USA – 1901
67. Francisco Fernando (Franz Ferdinand), Archduke of Austria – 1914
68. Sidonian Country, President of Portugal – 1918
69. Michael Collins, Irish Revolutionary Leader – 1922
70. Ahmet Muhtar Zogolli – 1924
71. Aleksandar I, King of Yugoslavia – 1939
72. Walter Edward Minister of United Kingdom in the Middle East- 1944
73. Ahmad Mahar Pasha, Egypt Prime Minister – 1945
74. Mahmud Fahmi Nokrashi, Egyptian Prime Minister – 1948
75. Abdullah I, King of Jordan – 1951
76. José Antonio Remón Cantera, President of Panama – 1955
77. Hendrik Verwoerd, Prime Minister of South Africa – 1960
78. Hazza Al Majali, Jordan’s Prime Minister – 1960
79. Louis Rwagasore, Prime Minister of Burundi – 1961
80. John F. Kennedy, President USA – 1963
81. Jospeh Bamina, Prime Minister of Burundi – 1965
82. Hendrik Frensch Verwoerd, President of South Africa – 1966
83. Robert F. Kennedy, United States Attorney General – 1968
84. Abdirashid Ali Sharmarke, Somalia President – 1969
85. Wasfi Al-Tal, Prime Minister of Jordan – 1971
86. Abdul Rahman, Malaysian Police General Inspector – 1974
87. Francois Tombalbaye, President of Chad – 1975
88. Shaik Mujibur Rajman, President of Bangladesh – 1975
89. Muhammed, Head of State Nigeria – 1976
90. Hans Martin Schleyer, German business leader – 1977
91. Markenngouabi, President of Congo – 1977
92. Ahmad Bin Hussein al-Ghashmi, President of the Republic of Yemen – 1978
93. Park Chung Hee, President of South Korea – 1979
94. Lord Louis Mountbatten, Diplomatic, British Royal Navy Officer – 1979
95. William Richard Tolbert, President of Liberia – 1980
96. Anwar Sadat, First Minister of Egypt – 1981
97. Ziaur Rahman, President of Bangladesh – 1981
98. Bachir Gemayel, elected President of Liban – 1982
99. Mohammad Ali Rajai, President of Iran – 1981
100. Indira Gandhi, Prime Minister of India – 1984
101. Rodrigo Lara Bonilla, Minister of Justice of Colombia – 1984
102. Thimas Sankara, President of Burkina Faso, 1987
103. Carlos Mauro Hoyos, Attorney General of Colombia – 1988
104. Luis Carlos Galan, Presidential Candidate of Colombia – 1989
105. James N Rowe, US Military Advisor – 1989
106. Waldemar Franklin Quintero, Commander of Antioquia Police, Colombia – 1989
107. Alfred Herrhausen, CEO Deutsche Bank – 1989
108. Samuel Doe, President of Liberia – 1990
109. Bernardo Jaramillo Ossa, Presidential Candidate, Leader of The Patriotic Union Party – 1990
110. Rajiv Gandhi, Hindu Politician – 1991
111. Giovanni Falcone, Judge for Anti-Mafia – 1992
112. Melchoir Ndadaye, President of Burundi – 1993
113. Luis Donaldo Colosio, Presidential Candidate in Mexico – 1994
114. Juvento Habyarimana, President of Rwanda – 1994
115. Yitzhak Rabin, Prime Minister of Israel – 1995
116. Vazgen Sargsyan, Prime Minister of Armenia – 1999
117. Luis María Argaña, Vice President of Paraguay – 1999
118. Zoran Djindjic, Prime Minister of Serbia – 2003
119. João Bernardo Vieira, President of Guinea 2009
120. Ali Abdulah Saleh, President of Yemen – 2017
121. Alexander Zajarchenko, President of the Republic of Donetsk – 2018
122. Aristotle Sandoval, former Governor of the State of Jalisco – 2020
123. Jovenel Moise, President of Haiti – 2021
124. Shinzo Abe, former Prime Minister of Japan – 2022